Q: More than 8.3 million people exited poverty in Mexico between 2022 and 2024, the country’s statistics agency, INEGI, announced Aug. 13. While the survey showed declines in extreme poverty and moderate poverty, a third of Mexicans remain impoverished, according to the survey. What are the main reasons for the declines in poverty between 2022 and 2024, most of which was during the administration of former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador? In what direction have Mexico’s poverty rates been trending since current President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, and why? What is the outlook for Mexico’s poverty rates in coming months and years, given current macroeconomic and fiscal trends?
A: Susan W. Parker, professor in the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland: “The large declines in measured poverty between 2022 and 2024 in Mexico are based on the income and socioeconomic conditions reported by the population in the Survey of Income and Expenditures. The reduction in poverty largely reflects an increase in real labor income of Mexican households, potentially helped by increases in the minimum wage. However, some analysts have argued the estimates are not credible and suggest that at least part of the reduction might be due to INEGI improving its measurement of capturing labor income rather than real increases.