It is not a given that the Tatmadaw will gain the upper hand in the civil conflict in Myanmar. A new consensus should include the resistance coalition.
Regional governments, including key ASEAN countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines, have started to re-engage the junta in Myanmar on the basis of advancing pertinent bilateral issues. This is despite the latter’s failure to implement the Five Point Consensus (5PC), a 2021 ASEAN plan to manage the political and humanitarian crisis in Myanmar.
The junta’s 2025 battlefield gains and the 2026 elections, along with frustration over the crisis’s intractability, gave impetus to these diplomatic efforts. However, the war remains stalemated, and the Myanmar resistance continues to vigorously oppose the government in Naypyidaw, casting doubt on assumptions of an impending junta consolidation and peace. ASEAN countries and the bloc should therefore continue to press the junta to implement a reworked five-point plan to address the country’s political and humanitarian crises.